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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Financial Hemorrhage or the Cost of Victory?

The war in Fountain continues. The current winner of that conflict depends on who you ask and what day you ask. It is a hotly contested war both in New Eden and around the blogosphere. With all the propaganda that gets thrown around, how's a capsuleer supposed to know who's on top?

You can always look at the influence map - in this case January 31, 2013 in the left and June 26, 2013 on the right.


Unfortunately it's a snapshot in time and doesn't tell the ongoing story so much as the final result. I'm more interested in the on going story right now.

In cases like this, I always fall back to my industrial ways. In other words, I do a cost analysis. Even in New Eden, resources are not infinite. Victory eventually goes to those with the better balance sheet. But with alliance balance sheets a closely guarded secret, we can't really see what the cost is.

However, we can infer the cost from losses. To that end, I put together four charts showing how four of the major players are doing in this current fight. And yes, I'm going to share them with you. I've lifted all the numbers for these charts directly from Eve Kill.



As you can see, TEST is the only one of the four with the red line above the green line. That is a bad position to be in. Their ISK bars are not good either. They've lost more than they've destroyed. From a purely economic viewpoint, TEST is not fairing so well.

But as I was putting these together, I noticed something else in these charts. Have a look at the month and year the trend line started up for each of the combatants. From bottom to top, Fatal Ascension really got involved at the beginning of the declared war between the CFC and TEST. That's fairly typical. They're like Goonswarm militia, only called to arms when needed.

Both the Pandemic Legion and the Goonswarm Federation curves start going up in December 2012. That's when Crucible came out. I'd like to believe the trend is because of increased high-sec activities, but an investigation of the data does not bear that out. For instance, December 2012 is when Pandemic Legion was helping destroy Against ALL Authorities. It was a null-sec conflict and the majority of ship kills and losses occurred there.

Then we come to the TEST chart. Their line starts up a full month after Goonswarm's and Pandemic Legion's. In December 2013, TEST was somewhat active in Catch and Providence. In January that rolled back into Delve and their ship losses seriously escalated. Did someone miss a political clue or something? It sure seems that way to me.

So it seems this cycle of conflict actually started six months ago. TEST has been in the red the entire time, and even before Crucible launched. That makes me wonder how long they can keep going. The fact it's been this way with them for a year argues they can keep at it indefinitely. But cold reality argues for a different outcome. What do you think?

Fly Careful

11 comments:

  1. Wow. I was quite surprised to read your blog and see Test's red line. So what happened to the recent fighting between Test and CFC, where Test inflicted quite a bit more damage than they took. I've been reading that Test is bleeding CFC.

    http://eve-kill.net/?a=kill_related&kll_id=18359330

    Kills: 362
    Losses: 171
    Damage done (ISK): 169.48B - 169483.6M
    Damage received (ISK): 53.85B - 53853.38M
    Efficiency: 75.89%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a good question, and the one that got me looking at the numbers in the first place. Here's the numbers I pulled from Eve-kill.net for TEST:

      Month Kills ISK Destroyed (B) Losses ISK Lost (B) Efficiency
      June, 2013 13,238 1,248.36 24,269 1,297.58 49.03%
      May, 2013 14,246 1,476.97 27,523 1,308.85 53.02%
      April, 2013 11,673 1,382.67 19,986 880.99 61.08%
      March, 2013 13,642 1,216.12 20,988 869.5 58.31%
      February, 2013 13,080 981.76 25,932 1,034.59 48.69%
      January, 2013 13,159 1,528.48 17,632 974.12 61.08%
      December, 2012 9,356 881.42 11,862 697.59 55.82%
      November, 2012 9,031 651.03 11,196 572.35 53.22%
      October, 2012 10,245 1,044.91 11,497 546.9 65.64%
      September, 2012 9,832 1,031.64 11,021 481.55 68.18%
      August, 2012 11,931 1,555.40 14,940 749.69 67.48%
      July, 2012 16,645 1,521.21 13,259 580.61 72.38%

      Here is the URL: http://eve-kill.net/?a=alliance_detail&all_id=3716.

      All I can say is there are a LOT of ships exploding in New Eden these days.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the extra data, Mabrick. Has someone told these guys that manufacturing has slowed while we wait for the price of meta-goo to come down?

      Delete
  2. Test losing more ships as they destroy is not relevant except for e-peen size comparison. (And morale!)
    The question is how their income and financial reserves will hold up against losses that have doubled the last couple of months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is indeed why I included the ISK lost and destroyed bars on the charts. It should also be noted Pandemic Legion, a TEST ally, is having excellent efficiency during this war. This post is certainly not an overall war summary. That would be a tad more difficult to compile. For instance, I know my alliance is officially neutral in this war, but nothing stops us from taking pot shots at both sides. There are also the daily high-sec gank numbers in those totals. Separating those data points from the overall would be a daunting task.

      Delete
  3. TEST has always had awful ISK efficiency and always will; that's just the way TEST pilots fly. The fact that our ISK efficiency during the war is still bad doesn't really prove anything.

    In the end, while ISK is important, it isn't what will win or lose the war. TEST can afford to keep losing as much as it does so long as it holds onto its moons and space, which it is doing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is also the willingness of pilots to PLEX their way out of a negative balance. That is where the possibility of pay to win exists in Eve Online - so long as the ships get manufactured. If that happens, negative ISK balances truly are irrelevant.

      Delete
  4. Boodabooda last night told us the moneys ok for now.

    I'm not sure the red line being above the green reflects anything other than average pilot age. We're generally newer pilots, we often pod jump, sometimes suiciding the ship to go home rather than taking 20 gates back and very few of us worry about killboard stats. Later in the game (and I'm sure Test will reach this too) people worry more about losing expensive clones so become more risk averse.

    We have recently instituted a policy of taking a suicidal battleventure fleet out to celebrate taking back R64s, like this one: http://eve-kill.net/?a=kill_related&kll_id=18394623

    So perhaps a bit harsh to judge us on a metric we don't care about and don't play to optimise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I intended no offense in the discussion. I don't disagree with the tactics you describe. In fact, they seem quite liberating. Fight the good fight, to hell with the rest! That certainly sets TEST apart from a lot of alliances. 8-)

      Delete
    2. Oh no offence taken. I'll have a think about how to see financial indicators that an alliance is struggling because a lot has been written about this recently (especially by goon propagandists) and the metrics don't seem to accurately describe the health of an alliance.

      Delete
  5. "Both the Pandemic Legion and the Goonswarm Federation curves start going up in December 2012. That's when Crucible came out. I'd like to believe the trend is because of increased high-sec activities, but an investigation of the data does not bear that out. For instance, December 2012 is when Pandemic Legion was helping destroy Against ALL Authorities. It was a null-sec conflict and the majority of ship kills and losses occurred there.

    Then we come to the TEST chart. Their line starts up a full month after Goonswarm's and Pandemic Legion's. In December 2013, TEST was somewhat active in Catch and Providence. In January that rolled back into Delve and their ship losses seriously escalated. Did someone miss a political clue or something? It sure seems that way to me."

    I'm confused. Its only June 2013 and in December 2012 is when Retribution came out. Is this like Stardates in Star Trek? Because I could never figure those things out either.

    ReplyDelete

Be civil, be responsible and most of all be kind. I will not tolerate poor form. There will be no James Hooks here. We are all better than that.