The war in Fountain continues. The current winner of that conflict depends on who you ask and what day you ask. It is a hotly contested war both in New Eden and around the blogosphere. With all the propaganda that gets thrown around, how's a capsuleer supposed to know who's on top?
You can always look at the influence map - in this case January 31, 2013 in the left and June 26, 2013 on the right.
Unfortunately it's a snapshot in time and doesn't tell the ongoing story so much as the final result. I'm more interested in the on going story right now.
In cases like this, I always fall back to my industrial ways. In other words, I do a cost analysis. Even in New Eden, resources are not infinite. Victory eventually goes to those with the better balance sheet. But with alliance balance sheets a closely guarded secret, we can't really see what the cost is.
However, we can infer the cost from losses. To that end, I put together four charts showing how four of the major players are doing in this current fight. And yes, I'm going to share them with you. I've lifted all the numbers for these charts directly from Eve Kill.
But as I was putting these together, I noticed something else in these charts. Have a look at the month and year the trend line started up for each of the combatants. From bottom to top, Fatal Ascension really got involved at the beginning of the declared war between the CFC and TEST. That's fairly typical. They're like Goonswarm militia, only called to arms when needed.
Both the Pandemic Legion and the Goonswarm Federation curves start going up in December 2012. That's when Crucible came out. I'd like to believe the trend is because of increased high-sec activities, but an investigation of the data does not bear that out. For instance, December 2012 is when Pandemic Legion was helping destroy Against ALL Authorities. It was a null-sec conflict and the majority of ship kills and losses occurred there.
Then we come to the TEST chart. Their line starts up a full month after Goonswarm's and Pandemic Legion's. In December 2013, TEST was somewhat active in Catch and Providence. In January that rolled back into Delve and their ship losses seriously escalated. Did someone miss a political clue or something? It sure seems that way to me.
So it seems this cycle of conflict actually started six months ago. TEST has been in the red the entire time, and even before Crucible launched. That makes me wonder how long they can keep going. The fact it's been this way with them for a year argues they can keep at it indefinitely. But cold reality argues for a different outcome. What do you think?