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Wednesday, May 29, 2013

CONCORDOKKEN, Destroyers and the War Dec System

This is one of my mumblings. I've decided to record it. I get curious about things and that leads to other things and that sometimes leads to interesting insights. These insights can lend evidence to past conjectures, but they also help me understand what's going on in New Eden as a whole.

To help with these mumblings there are lots and lots of data available. New Eden has it's own Big Data source to be sure. One of them is Eve-Kill. Did you know Eve-Kill keeps stats for CONCORD? They do, follow the link. Of course, not all CONCORDOKKEN get recorded I'm sure. But I'm also sure there are enough records to be statistically relevant. So what does EVE-Kill's CONCORD statistics tell us?

Well, there were 11,939 CONCORDOKKEN recorded for the month of April. Here's the breakdown.
Of all the CONCORDOKKEN, 88% of them came down on destroyers and battlecruisers, with destroyers being the far more prevalent offender at 72% of all ships CONCORDOKKENED.
Now, if I click on the destroyer ship type (I've provided a direct link,) I can see exactly which destroyers were destroyed. On the first page of 50 dead destroyers, 45 are Catalysts, one is an Interbus Catalyst, one is an Algos and the remaining three are Thrashers. It's not until page four that the ratio changes appreciably. On that page, alot of Thrashers show up. But on the next page, it goes back to being very predominantly Catalysts.

Huh, looking down the list of involved alliances, it reads like a who's who of null-sec: lots of dinosaur and insect icons. It certainly looks like those icons appear more often than general census statistics would dictate. Let's ctrl-click on the link to bring up the alliance kill records for each in a new tab. Interesting, Goonswarm lost a total 2627 destroyers in April and Test Alliance Please Ignore lost 2889. I must calculate percentages! Wow, these losses account for about 25% of Goonswarm losses and about 15% of TEST's losses in April.

That 25% figure sure is intriguing. One in four ships lost by Goonswarm in April was a destroyer? I know of no sane fleet doctrine in null-sec that calls for destroyer fleets. Still, I wouldn't want to assume all the losses were in high-sec. I quick rundown of the first 50 destroyer losses from April for Goonswarm should give me an indication of what's going on. Hm, it shows nine destroyers were actually lost in null-sec. One was lost in low-sec. That leaves 40 destroyers lost in high-sec. Let's do a quick spot check of those high-sec losses. Those not listing CONCORD as the Final Blow deliverer do show CONCORD as the top damage dealer in most cases. And page two and page three look much the same as does the last page. Interestingly the second to the last page shows many Cormorant kills in null-sec. Evidently there was a battle in DP-1YE - between Goonswarm and TEST according to the victim and killer columns.

What's the Eve-Kill listing for DP-1YE show I wonder? Ah, there was a TEST versus Goonswarm battle on April 4th. Looking through the listed kills shows around 100 losses in DP-1YE that day - almost all of them destroyers. Goonswarm looks to have killed TEST destroyers with a variety of ships, tending to be attack battlecruiser heavy. TEST seems to be very fond of the Talwar for some reason. Spot checking several of their kills show only Talwar in the participating ship list. Isn't that odd! I need to look at other dates for this system. Ah ha, there was another large scale destroyer destruction in DP-1YE on April 25th between Fatal Ascension and TEST. TEST again lost a lot of Talwar with heavy Talwar participation in the kills they did get. Fatal Ascension was, like Goonswarm, attack battlecruiser oriented. Being pets of Goonswarm, I'd expect nothing less.

I'm getting sidetracked here. Time to go back to the Catalysts. The fracas between TEST and CFC spilled over into high-sec quite a bit in April. Lots of Talwar and Cormorant losses in the list. However, the Catalysts remained CONCORD fodder for the most part during the month. Was no war declared? If it had been, CONCORD would not have been involved. That makes me wonder if both sides are dispensing with the expense of declaring war because it's cheaper to lose thousands of destroyers than pay the war cost. This more than anything confirms to me the whole war price mechanic is an absolute failure. It only prevents small groups from declaring war on big groups. The big groups don't even bother it seems.

They prefer to gank, I think (LOL.) The catalyst numbers strongly indicate this. Does that mean high-sec did become a gankers' paradise. Perhaps. But overall it indicates TEST is containing costs by flying a lot of inexpensive ships (and losing them,) Goonswarm has an attack battlecruiser doctrine (derp,) catalysts are still the preferred gank ship (duh) and ganking for Goonswarm is still an equal opportunity pastime. When CONCORD didn't deliver the last blows, the pilots who were awarded that honor are from all sorts of organizations. Too bad I can't get a breakdown by destroyer variant by location. I sure would like to know the percent of Goonswarm losses that were just Catalysts in high-sec. I should take the time to do that manually another day...

Well, that was an interesting mumble. I think it laid the seeds of another mumble later. I'll give it a rest for now though and see how curious I get. Until then there's a business to take care of.

Fly Careful

7 comments:

  1. Talwar fleets are a thing now. TEST copied them from PIZZA who had been raping us with them for a while.

    They're perfect for TEST because they can be flown effectively by low SP pilots. 30 to 50 or so of them can put out significant alpha.

    And they're fun.

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    1. I'll buy that. Thanks for the information. I wondered about the low SP requirement consideration, but my mumble didn't take me into pilot details. That's a whole lot more digression than I wanted to get into. 8-)

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  2. gee, I wonder what CONCORD's losses were . . .

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  3. For goons as well as other gankers, wars aren't really an option - wardecs are trivially easy to evade.

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  4. Oh, and another thing: Last I checked eve-kill only recorded and kept stats on CONCORD kills if there was at least 1 other player on the killmail. That means that many "losses" aren't even recorded on eve-kill.

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  5. I get the impression that you're saying that Goonswarm and TEST should have declared war against each other in April?

    Goonswarm and TEST don't fight in highsec. The vast, vast majority of destroyer losses from either entity in highsec will be due to ganks on third parties. Nobody goes to highsec to fight against other nullsec alliances.

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    1. No, that's not it. What I said was, "This more than anything confirms to me the whole war price mechanic is an absolute failure. It only prevents small groups from declaring war on big groups. The big groups don't even bother it seems." That's a condemnation of CCP if it's a condemnation of anyone.

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