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Friday, February 15, 2013

The Retribution NRP Rush - Maybe

[EDIT 2/18/13: I believe the maybe is now a certainty. Have a look at Stabs' post today.)

There is another ship balancing developer post by CCP Fozzie. It tries to clearly establish what will come with Retribution 1.1 and what will come with the summer expansion (as yet unnamed.) It certainly does that. It talks all about what is happening to battle cruisers, etc., etc. It's all good stuff. You should go read it - later.

For now I want to tip you off about the large bonanza announced in the post. At least, it has the potential for being a bonanza. If I were a manufacturer (hmmmm, could be you know) I'd be staking my claim right now. What's this you ask? This here!
Ancillary Armor Repairers 
  • AARs can optionally be loaded with Nanite Repair Paste to increase repair amount, using a similar system to the way cap boosters can be loaded into ASBs, including the same 60 second reload time.
I've highlighted the part that got my attention. The new AAR is charged with Nanite Repair Paste, NRP for short. Hot damn! That's some of the best news I've seen in quite some time.

For those who are not industrialists, NRP is made from planet goo. However, it isn't like a Wetware Mainframe or Robotics. It isn't actually made using a Command Center and an Advanced Facility. It is made using a BPO like any other ammo type.

What's more, it's a high volume, high profit product. No matter how much is on the market, I've never failed to sell my stock and typically within 24 hours. And that's with sell orders, not the quick sell. Since the only cost to making NRP is time, the 50 mISK price of the BPO and the manufacturing taxes if you do it in high-sec, it also has a very fast return on investment.

With one paragraph CCP Fozzie has increased demand at least three fold to my way of thinking.

How's that? Let me give you a little economics ala Mabrick. It isn't enough to manufacture something that has a high profit margin. There also has to be demand. If you manufacture things with high margin and no demand, you end up with a lot of dead stock hanging around in unfulfilled sell orders. That's all liability and no asset. When your velocity of ISK goes to zero, your in a world of suck.

There is a HUGE difference between potential margin and real margin. Real margin is what you get when you actually sell something. Potential margin is the same as a boot up your ass. Okay, it's not as painful as that... until you get stuck with dead stock.

The trick is to manufacture something with good REAL margin. This means demand. Remember all that supply and demand stuff in the economics class you slept through? Anyway, ammo has always been one of these items. The gross margin is actually quite small but volume makes the real margin huge. Everyone always needs ammo. Just like pirates need NRP. It's the only way to repair modules when you can't dock up because CONCORD won't let you.

So how does this announcement triple the real margin? Well, actually that's a bit miss leading. Keep in mind, it's not necessarily triple the profit. That remains to be seen.What it does is triple the potential customers for NRP - the demand side of the equation. NRP as it stands now is a PvP play-style item. Those who over heat as a matter of policy need lots of it. But those capsuleers are not the majority of players. PvE players don't overheat. Carebears don't overheat. Blobs rely on numbers not over heating to accomplish the FC's goals. None of them need NRP.

Now they will. I know for a fact  the CFC is going to an armor doctrine. Most alliances in the "know" are. CCP Fozzie has just sounded the call for all those non-NRP play-styles to jump into my real margin calculations. Now, this is not written history. I could be wrong. Everyone might hate the AAR and this attempted reboot of active armor tanking may fail. But for now, I'm a very, very happy industrialist.

Fly Careful


  1. Damn. I was going to buy the BPO and tweak my PI setups this weekend. I suspect competition will now outstrip demand. The only reason I delayed was a) hisec PI lines and b) won't the big null entities just produce their own internally?

    1. I don't think you need to worry: 1) the only downside to high-sec PI is the damn tax and lower quantities but you can still compete against WH and null-sec planets because of power constraints on all Command Centers limiting the number of facilities you can run; 2) the big null entities already produce their own internally so that's a zero sum. If you notice I said triple not quadruple even though I mentioned three other play-styles. *wink*

    2. *power constraints in all Command Centers limiting the number of facilities THEY can run.

    3. Buy the BPO, Cheradenine Harper. It will take months for people to retool to match the increase in demand.

  2. WH is a very nice place to produce NRP. Especially when you have the right planets. You can also try making corresponding P3 product (datachip, gel-matix), the gel-matix price has raised by 20% after the announcement of armor buff.

  3. I'm pretty sure it will add up to more demand. But it wont be as good as rigs or some ship hulls.
    The new armor modules arent nearly as good as the shield ones with their current form.
    Remains to be seen how that plays out. I think what you see now is more of a speculation going on.

    But you cant really go wrong all that much if you produce nanite paste. :)

  4. Very good call, Mab. It's nice when you make an educated guess and get proved right later. Well done!


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